Global Electric Truck Sales by Region
China dominates with 80%+ of global sales. Global M&HD electric truck sales reached ~90,000+ units in 2024. Sources: IEA, ICCT, BloombergNEF.
H1 2025 data represents first-half only. China accounts for 80%+ of global sales.
OEM Market Share — Class 8 Electric (US)
Daimler leads with ~40-45% share, followed by Volvo at 25-30%. Tesla supply-constrained until 2026 ramp. Sources: ICCT, S&P Global, ACT Research.
Daimler (Freightliner)40-45%
Volvo Trucks25-30%
PACCAR (Kenworth/Peterbilt)10-15%
Tesla5-10%
Mack (Volvo subsidiary)5%
Traton (MAN/Scania)3%
Other (Nikola, BYD, Lion, Xos)5-10%
Estimated Class 8 electric semi truck OEM market share by units shipped, 2024. Sources: company disclosures, ACT Research, BloombergNEF.
Fleet Orders & Reservations
Major fleet pre-orders and deliveries — PepsiCo, Walmart, UPS, Amazon, FedEx, and others placing bets on electric freight.
| Fleet | OEM / Supplier | Units Ordered | Delivery Status | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werner Enterprises | Tesla (Semi) | 35 | Ordered | 2025 | Bloomberg |
| Walmart | Tesla (Semi) | 130 | Ordered | 2024 | Bloomberg, Walmart sustainability report |
| Sysco | Daimler eCascadia | 50 | Ordered | 2024 | Daimler Truck, Sysco |
| FedEx | BYD Class 8 | 75 | Ordered | 2024 | FedEx sustainability report |
| Maersk | Volvo / Einride | 300 | Ordered | 2024 | Maersk, Einride press release |
| Biagi Bros | Tesla (Semi) | 25 | In service | 2024 | Tesla, Biagi Bros |
| UPS | Tesla (Semi) | 125 | Ordered | 2023 | Reuters, UPS filings |
| Anheuser-Busch | BYD / Nikola | 800 | Ordered | 2023 | Company press release |
| DHL Supply Chain | Daimler eCascadia | 100 | In service | 2023 | Daimler Truck, DHL |
| Schneider National | Daimler eCascadia | 50 | In service | 2023 | Schneider, Daimler |
| PepsiCo | Tesla (Semi) | 100+ | In service | 2022 | Tesla, PepsiCo disclosures |
| Amazon | Volvo VNR Electric | 20 | In service | 2022 | Volvo Trucks, Amazon |
| NFI Industries | Volvo VNR Electric | 14 | deployed | 2022 | Volvo Trucks |
Notable Class 7-8 electric semi truck fleet orders. Sources: company press releases, filings, and industry reports.
Revenue Forecasts by Analyst
Wide variance across analysts due to different scope definitions — heavy-duty only ($1.9B-$42B) vs all trucks ($1.5B-$32B) vs broader commercial EVs ($89B+).
Heavy-Duty Electric Trucks
| Source | Scope | Base | 2025 | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 | 2033 | 2035 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Market Insights | Global Heavy-Duty Trucks | — | $16.97B | — | — | — | — | $152.95B | 22.2% |
| DataNext Research | US Class 8 Only | $1.92B | $2.52B | $3.3B | $5.68B | $9.76B | $24.76B | $42.44B | 31.2% |
| Market Research Future | Global Heavy-Duty | $0.93B | — | — | — | — | — | $14.5B | ~28% |
| Grand View Research | Global Heavy-Duty (>26K lbs) | — | $1.93B | $2.4B | — | $4.7B | $6.45B | — | 15.1% |
| IMARC Group (China Only) | China Electric Trucks | 3 | — | — | — | — | $19.3B | — | 20.6% |
All Electric Trucks (All Classes)
| Source | Scope | Base ($B) | End Value | CAGR | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarketsandMarkets | Global (All Classes) | — | $5.25B | — | — |
| Fortune Business Insights | Global (All Classes) | — | $1.51B | — | — |
| Precedence Research | Global (All Classes) | $1.22B | $1.6B | — | — |
| Straits Research | Global (All Classes) | $1.34B | $1.69B | — | — |
| Allied Market Research | Global (All Classes) | $0.39B | — | — | — |
| IMARC Group | Global (All Classes) | $0.85B | — | — | — |
| Technavio | Global Growth Increment | — | — | — | +$20.32B (cumul.) |
| P&S Intelligence (US Only) | US Only (All Classes) | $0.73B | — | — | — |
Why Some Numbers Are 10× Larger
Broader-market reports include vans, buses, and light commercial vehicles — not just heavy-duty trucks. That explains the order-of-magnitude gap.
| Source | Scope | 2024 | 2025 | End Value | CAGR | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mordor Intelligence | Global Electric Commercial Vehicles | $77.8B | $89.37B | $166.30B | 13.5% | Includes all commercial EVs (vans, trucks, buses) |
| Mordor Intelligence | Electric Trucks Sub-segment | — | $89.37B | $226.75 (2029)B | 26.2% | Methodology unclear; likely includes LCVs |
| Polaris Market Research | Global Electric Trucks | $43.81B | — | — | ~30% | Broad definition; through 2034 |
| Grand View Research | Global Electric Trucks (General) | — | — | $124.97B | 27.1% | 2023 base: $22.61B; includes all classes |
Unit Volume Forecasts by Region
IEA scenarios project 500K-1.6M M&HD electric truck sales by 2035. China expected to reach 46% truck sales share by 2030. Sources: IEA, BNEF, ICCT, McKinsey.
| Source | Region | 2024 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA (STEPS Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | ~500,000-700,000 | ~1,600,000 | >20% of M&HDV sales by 2035 |
| IEA (APS Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | Higher than STEPS | ~30% sales share | Announced Pledges Scenario |
| IEA (NZE Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | Significantly higher | >55% sales share | Net Zero Emissions by 2050 |
| BloombergNEF | Global | 90,000+ (H1: 89,000 in H1 2025) | ~4% global share | China: 46% of truck sales | — | China 90% of H1 2025 sales |
| ICCT | Europe | ~24,000 | ~50,000 (est.) | 290,000-340,000 | — | From 22,500 base (Sept 2025) |
| ICCT | China | 230,000+ | ~450,000+ (25% share) | — | — | BEV heavy trucks at 29% penetration H1 2025 |
| IEA | United States | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~8% | — | Uncertain due to emissions standards changes |
| IEA | Europe | 2.3% | 3.6% (H1) | ~33% | — | 25% fleet-wide by 2030 |
| IEA | India | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~2% | — | Earliest stage among major markets |
| Frost & Sullivan | Global | — | — | 6,300,000 | — | 41.4% CAGR from 397,146 units (2022) |
| ACT Research | North America | <0.1% | <1% | 25% | — | Lowest among all truck classes; 50% by 2040 |
| McKinsey | EU+US+China | — | — | — | >50% | Up to $140B market by 2035 |
| Precedence Research | Global | 618,170 | 841,460 | — | 13,499,830 (2034) | 36.1% CAGR; light commercial vehicles |
Unit sales and market share forecasts from IEA, BloombergNEF, ICCT, and other analysts. IEA scenario rows shown first.
EV Penetration Rates (% of New Truck Sales)
China at 25-29% penetration in H1 2025 vs <0.5% in the US. Europe at 2-3.6% with Netherlands leading at 6.5%+.
| Region | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | H1 2025 | 2030F | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (Heavy Trucks) | <3% | ~5% | 9-14% | 25-29% | 46% (BNEF) | ICCT; BloombergNEF |
| Europe (Heavy Trucks >16t) | <0.5% | 0.9-1.5% | 2.0-2.3% | 3.6% | 25-33% (IEA) | ACEA; IEA |
| Netherlands (EU Leader) | — | — | — | 6.5%+ | — | ACEA H1 2025 |
| United States (Class 8) | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~8% (IEA) | IEA; ICCT |
| Global (M&HD Trucks) | <1% | ~1.5% | ~2.0% | ~3-4% | >10% (est.) | IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 |
| India | <0.01% | <0.05% | <0.1% | <0.1% | ~2% (IEA) | IEA |
China leads EV truck penetration at 25-29% in H1 2025 vs <0.5% in the US.
Total Addressable Market (All Powertrains)
Context for EV penetration — US Class 8 market is ~290K units/yr, global M&HD ~1.7-1.9M. EV share remains tiny outside China.
| Market Segment | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2035 Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Class 8 Total Units | 309,615 | ~270,000 | ~290,000 | 627,000 (McKinsey) | Fleet Equipment Mag; McKinsey |
| US Fleet Size (Class 8) | — | ~12,200,000 | ~12,200,000 | — | Industry data (Jan 2024: 13,000 EV out of 12.2M) |
| North America M&HD Total | — | ~560,000 | ~578,000 | 627,000 (McKinsey) | McKinsey Road to 2035 |
| China Heavy Truck Total | ~670,000 | ~640,000 | ~680,000 | — | CAAM / industry reports |
| EU Heavy-Duty Truck Registrations | ~310,000 | ~300,000 | ~320,000 | — | ACEA |
| Global Class 8 Equivalent | — | ~1,500,000 | ~1,700,000-1,900,000 | — | Multiple sources; ranges vary |
Total addressable market context — all powertrains, not just electric. EV penetration of Class 8 remains <0.1% in the US.