TCO Parity Timeline

BEV trucks expected to reach TCO parity with diesel by 2030 in Europe/US; already achieved in China for certain use cases

Source: IEA; McKinsey

China Dominance

China represents >80% of global electric truck sales (2024); expected to reach 46% of domestic truck sales by 2030

Source: BloombergNEF; ICCT

US Regulatory Uncertainty

EPA GHG Phase 3 and CARB ACF changes create policy uncertainty; IEA notes US outlook 'uncertain due to emissions standards changes'

Source: IEA; ACT Research

Class 8 Lags Other Classes

ACT Research: Class 8 has lowest ZE adoption predictions among all truck classes due to range/weight constraints

Source: ACT Research

Long-Haul Still Challenging

Long-haul irregular-route battery-electric trucks still 'years off' (ACT Research); FCEV may be better for 500+ mile routes

Source: ACT Research; McKinsey

Truck Industry Value Pool

Combined EU+US truck industry value pools exceed $680B by 2035; ZE trucks capture ~20% ($140B)

Source: McKinsey

Production Growth Outlook

North American truck production growth: 5-7% annually between 2026-2028

Source: McKinsey

Battery Technology

97% of electric trucks globally are battery-electric (vs. FCEV); LFP chemistry dominates in commercial vehicles

Source: BloombergNEF 2025

Section 177 States Impact

17+ US states adopting CARB ACT rules by 2027 (WA, OR, CO, NJ, NY, MA, VT, MD, etc.)

Source: ACT Research

Goldman Sachs (Limited)

GS forecasts ~25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030 (<1% of fleet); specific electric Class 8 market size not publicly available

Source: Goldman Sachs Insights

Morgan Stanley (Limited)

Specific Class 8 electric truck market forecasts not found in public materials; detailed data behind paywall