P&C Combined Ratio — Quarterly Trend

Combined ratio measures whether P&C insurers (auto, home, commercial) make money on the policies they sell — claims + operating costs ÷ premiums. Under 100% = profitable underwriting; over 100% = losing money on policies, covered by investment income. Quarterly for major US carriers — Progressive's discipline (mid-80s) vs Allstate's recovery from 110%+ in 2022-23 is the headline cycle.

Quarterly GAAP combined ratios (Q1 2022 - Q1 2026). Anything below 100% means underwriting profit. PGR stayed disciplined in the high-80s through the cycle; ALL hit 115%+ in mid-2023 before recovering to ~95% by 2025. Hurricane-heavy Q3s and Q1 2025 LA fires visible. Sources: company 10-Qs and quarterly earnings releases.

Loss Ratio vs Expense Ratio — Carrier Snapshot

Splits the combined ratio into its two parts. Loss ratio (x-axis) = claims paid ÷ premiums; expense ratio (y-axis) = operating costs ÷ premiums. Diagonal = 100% break-even — below the line is profitable underwriting. LTM = last twelve months. Insurtechs (LMND, HIPO) still sit above; incumbents on the better-loss frontier.

Loss ratio (x) vs expense ratio (y), LTM through Q1 2026. Diagonal = 100% combined ratio break-even — points below the line are profitable. Insurtechs (LMND, HIPO) still sit above; ROOT joined the incumbents this cycle. PGR's low expense ratio (~20%) is the moat. Sources: company filings.

PGR vs ALL — The Comeback Story

Net premiums written (NPW) = total premiums sold (net of reinsurance ceded) — the top-line growth metric for P&C insurers. Paired with combined ratio (underwriting profitability) for Progressive vs Allstate, 2020-2026. The story: Progressive's steady compounding vs Allstate's recovery from the 2022-23 auto-claims disaster after used-car inflation broke its pricing.

Bars: net premiums written ($B, left axis). Lines: GAAP combined ratio (%, right axis). PGR compounded at ~17% CAGR with combined ratios stuck near 87-95%. ALL spent 2022-23 above 106% (used-car inflation + claims severity), then re-priced 16%+ and returned to ~93% by 2025. Sources: 10-Ks.

Top 10 US P&C Carriers by Direct Premium

Direct premiums written (DPW) = total premiums sold to customers before any reinsurance — the standard size ranking for P&C carriers. 2024 NAIC industry filings: State Farm leads, followed by Berkshire (GEICO) and Progressive. Six of the top ten are private mutuals (policyholder-owned), not publicly traded.

#▲	Company	Ticker	2024 DPW	Market Share	YoY Growth	Notes
1	State Farm Mutual (private)	private	$104.6B	10.76%	+16.4%	Largest US P&C carrier; 17%+ market share in personal auto; rate increases drove top-line growth
2	Berkshire Hathaway (GEICO + NICO) Public	BRK.B	$69.3B	7.13%	+6.5%	GEICO is the #2 personal auto insurer; National Indemnity is the largest US reinsurer
3	Progressive Public	PGR	$67.0B	6.89%	+21.7%	Direct + agency channel; Snapshot telematics; took most share of any carrier in 2024
4	Allstate Public	ALL	$56.1B	5.77%	+11.6%	Allstate brand + National General + Esurance + SquareTrade extended warranty
5	Liberty Mutual Mutual (private)	private	$47.4B	4.88%	+5.2%	Personal + commercial; largest US workers comp writer; closed Safeco brand integration
6	USAA Mutual (private)	private	$33.7B	3.47%	+9.8%	Military + family member-only; consistently top NPS scores; auto-loss recovery cycle in 2024
7	Travelers Public	TRV	$32.8B	3.37%	+7.9%	Business Insurance segment leads; bond and specialty; commercial-heavy book
8	Farmers Insurance Group Zurich-owned (private US ops)	private	$24.5B	2.52%	+2.1%	Zurich Insurance Group controls; Farmers Exchange structure; exited Florida 2023
9	Nationwide Mutual (private)	private	$23.2B	2.39%	+6.0%	Personal + commercial + financial services; pet insurance through PetFirst
10	American Family Mutual (private)	private	$16.8B	1.73%	+7.2%	Acquired Main Street America Group; midwest concentration; partial Permabilt brand

Top 10 US P&C carriers by 2024 direct premium written. Click column headers to sort. Total US P&C market: $972B. Six of the top ten are private mutuals or member-only entities — only BRK.B, PGR, ALL, and TRV are publicly tradable. Source: NAIC 2024 Annual Statement data.

P&C Combined Ratio — Quarterly Trend

Loss Ratio vs Expense Ratio — Carrier Snapshot

PGR vs ALL — The Comeback Story

Top 10 US P&C Carriers by Direct Premium

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